Wild, Wild Western Conference
While the Eastern Conference playoff picture is almost settled, with the 8 teams set and two of the four series matchups confirmed, the Western Conference is still rather chaotic.
Anyone wanting to fill in a bracket best do so with something erasable.
With four days left in the regular season, not one of the eight positions is confirmed. Three different teams still have a chance to claim the Stan Moore Memorial Trophy as regular season champs, two teams are battling for 4th and 5th, two more teams are fighting for 6th and 7th, and two clubs are fighting for the 8th and final playoff berth.
There are 48 different possible outcomes in the final standings.
Seven teams have booked their spot in the Sutherland Cup playoffs, with St. Thomas and Waterloo battling for the 8th and final playoff spot.
The only certainty is that Stratford and London will face each other in the first round; though home-ice advantage in the series is still up for grabs.
Wednesday’s games involving 7 of the 9 teams had an impact on the standings — most notably Chatham’s win over Elmira in a first-place showdown. But the situation still lacks any clarity.
As a prepper before reading the scenarios below, here are the current Tiebreaker Rules (tip: study the goal ratio equation … there’s one scenario when it could be required)
Here is a breakdown of the four separate battles for positioning in the Western Conference standings as we enter the final weekend of the season.
1ST-2ND-3RD
(record against opponent in parantheses)
CHATHAM MAROONS (75 Pts)
Games remaining (2):
Saturday at Komoka (2-0-0-1)
Sunday vs Stratford (1-0-1-1)
Highest finish: 1st (any combination of points gained and SMY points lost totaling 2)
Lowest finish: 3rd
Potential first round opponents: LaSalle, Strathroy, St. Thomas, Waterloo
ST. MARYS LINCOLNS (74 Pts)
Games remaining (1):
FRI vs ELM (2-0-1-0)
Highest finish: 1st (win and CHA gain no more than 1 more point)
SMY would win tiebreaker over CHA with more ROW (regulation+overtime wins)
Lowest finish: 3rd
Potential first round opponents: LaSalle, Strathroy, St. Thomas, Waterloo
ELMIRA SUGAR KINGS (73 Pts)
Games remaining (2):
Friday at St. Marys (1-2-0-0)
Sunday vs Sarnia (3-0-0-0)
Highest finish: 1st (win out and need help)
Lowest finish: 3rd
Potential first round opponents: LaSalle, Strathroy, St. Thomas, Waterloo
4TH-5TH
STRATFORD WARRIORS (66 Pts)
Games remaining (2):
Friday vs Waterloo (1-0-2-1)
Sunday at Chatham (2-1-0-0)
Warriors will face London in first round of playoffs with home ice advantage TBD
LONDON NATIONALS (66 Pts)
Games remaining (1):
Saturday at Strathroy (1-2-0-0)
Nationals will face Stratford in first round of playoffs with home ice advantage TBD
London wins tiebreaker with Stratford based on more ROW
6TH-7TH
STRATHROY ROCKETS (53 Pts)
Games remaining (1):
Saturday vs London (2-0-1-0)
Finish 6th: any point gained or any LAS point lost
Potential first round opponents: Elmira, Chatham, St. Marys
LASALLE VIPERS (51 Pts)
Games remaining (1):
Thursday at Sarnia (3-0-0-0)
Finish 6th: win at Sarnia AND Strathroy lose in regulation vs London
(LAS would win tiebreaker with more ROW, and if LAS win was by shootout, LAS would win next tiebreaker with more wins head-to-head: 3-1)
Potential first round opponents: Elmira, Chatham, St. Marys
8TH
ST. THOMAS STARS (47 Pts)
Games remaining (2):
Friday at Listowel (3-0-0-0)
Saturday at Sarnia (3-0-0-0)
Stars clinch 8th with any combination of points gained and Waterloo points lost totaling three (3)*
Potential first round opponents: Elmira, Chatham, St. Marys
WATERLOO SISKINS (46 Pts)
Games remaining (2):
Friday at Stratford (3-1-0-0)
Sunday at Welland (0-0-0-0)
Potential first round opponents: Elmira, Chatham, St. Marys
*In most scenarios where the teams are tied, STT would win tiebreaker with more ROW … with one exception:
STT wins one game by shootout, loses the other by overtime or shootout AND WAT wins both games in regulation or overtime.
>>Teams would finish tied in points, ROW, and head-to-head wins (2-2). Tiebreaker would be better goal ratio:
Goal Ratios through Wednesday games:
WAT: 0.4948 (+.003)
STT: 0.4918
